INPACT — Investigating National Policy Impacts on Atmospheric Climate Targets

Ireland Greenhouse Gas Policy Impact Explorer

Explore greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric pollutants, climate policies and policy effectiveness across Ireland.

Funded by Funded by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
2A

Time-Series Emissions Analysis

Total GHG Emissions (MtCO₂e) — National Total
International EU National Target
Vertical labels mark policy interventions (toggle by jurisdiction at left). Select box zoom, then drag over the chart; double-click to reset.
Emission Reduction (since 2019)
−8.9%
vs pre-policy trajectory
Avoided Emissions
6.3 MtCO₂e
vs no-policy baseline, 2020 onward
Trend Change (post-policy)
−1.4
MtCO₂e per year
Statistical Confidence
87%
interrupted time-series model
2B

Spatial Environmental Mapping

EPA monitoring network · OpenStreetMap
3

Policy Intelligence Panel

Selected policy

Climate Action Plan 2019

Implementation Year2019
Jurisdiction / TypeNational · Strategic / planning
Lead BodyGovernment of Ireland
Affected Sector(s)Cross-cutting (all sectors)
Intended Direction
Reduce
net effect on emissions
Jurisdiction
National
policy level
Instrument
Planning / sectoral actions
mechanism
Status / Outcome
Partially implemented; superseded by statutory CAPs
to date
Policy summary. First detailed Climate Action Plan; over 180 actions; non-statutory.
  • Where it sits: National strategic plan affecting cross-cutting sectors.
  • Status to date: Partially implemented; superseded by statutory CAPs.
  • Note: attribution of emission change to any single policy is indicative and subject to uncertainty.
4

Climate Policy Roadmap · 1992 → 2050

Click a node to inspect its impact
International framework EU legislation National plan / act Target / vision
5

Public Participation

Anonymous · optional
Tell us what you think
Share your view on how effective Ireland’s climate policies have been. Responses are anonymous and saved to the project’s feedback workbook for research.
6

National Climate Targets Dashboard

51%
Emission Reduction Target by 2030 (vs 2018)
Climate Neutrality — Climate Neutral Ireland
80%
Renewable Electricity by 2030
43%
Renewable Energy Share by 2030
25%
Agriculture Emission Reduction Target
Economy-wide transition pathway
Whole-series Mann–Kendall trend
Z, p-value after fitting
Sen's slope
kt CO₂-eq · yr⁻¹ (CI)
Segments fitted
points used / dropped
Piecewise Linear Regression
Segment statistics
Slope units: kt CO₂-eq per year. CI bounds are for the slope at the selected confidence level.
Residual diagnostics
About the Project

Investigating National Policy Impacts on Atmospheric Climate Targets (INPACT)

INPACT is a multidisciplinary research project that examines how national climate and environmental policies have influenced greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric composition, and climate outcomes in Ireland since the country’s initial engagement with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992.

As Ireland works towards legally binding climate targets—including a 51% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050—there is an urgent need to understand which policies have been effective, where gaps remain, and how future policy can deliver meaningful climate action. INPACT provides the scientific evidence needed to support these decisions.

Our Mission

The mission of INPACT is to assess the real-world impact of national policy interventions on greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric climate indicators, while identifying practical and evidence-based pathways that can help Ireland achieve its climate commitments.

By combining atmospheric science, economics, policy analysis, and data science, the project aims to answer a critical question:

Which policies have successfully reduced emissions and improved climate outcomes, and what lessons can be applied to future climate action?

What We Do

INPACT integrates multiple sources of environmental and policy data to create the first comprehensive assessment of how Irish climate policies have influenced atmospheric greenhouse gases and radiative forcing over time.

The project will:

  • Develop a timeline of national climate and environmental policies since the 1990s.
  • Compare bottom-up national emission inventories with top-down atmospheric observations and inverse modelling estimates.
  • Analyse long-term trends in greenhouse gases, atmospheric composition, essential climate variables, and radiative fluxes.
  • Apply advanced statistical and causal inference methods to evaluate policy effectiveness.
  • Investigate potential unintended environmental, economic, and social consequences of policy interventions.
  • Build an open digital platform and dashboard to visualise climate and policy data for policymakers, researchers, and the public.
  • Facilitate public dialogue and stakeholder engagement to support inclusive climate action.

Why INPACT Matters

Climate policies are often evaluated using reported emissions data, yet the ultimate measure of success is their impact on the atmosphere itself. Despite significant investment in emissions reduction strategies, greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise globally, and Ireland remains at risk of missing key climate targets.

INPACT bridges this gap by linking policy interventions directly to atmospheric observations and climate indicators. The project will generate robust evidence on the effectiveness of historical policies, identify barriers to successful implementation, and support the development of more effective and equitable climate solutions.

The project’s findings will help policymakers understand not only whether policies worked, but also:

Why did they work?
Understanding the mechanisms behind effective interventions.
For whom did they work?
Identifying which sectors and communities benefited.
Any unintended consequences?
Assessing effects across society and the economy.

Data, Science and Innovation

INPACT draws on some of the world’s leading climate and atmospheric observation systems, including:

Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) Copernicus Earth Observation Programme Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) National GHG inventories (UNFCCC frameworks)

Using advanced analytical methods, machine learning, geospatial analysis, and integrated data infrastructures, the project will create an open, interoperable framework for climate-policy evaluation.

A key legacy output will be a public-facing dashboard that visualises policy timelines alongside greenhouse gas measurements, emissions inventories, and climate indicators, making complex climate information accessible to decision-makers and communities.

Our Team

INPACT brings together experts in atmospheric science, climate policy, economics, environmental health, artificial intelligence, data science, and public engagement from the University of Galway and Insight – Research Ireland Centre for Data Analytics.

Dr. Liz Coleman
Dr. Liz ColemanPI
Principal InvestigatorUniversity of Galway

Dr. Coleman specialises in climate modelling, air quality forecasting, and the interactions between climate and atmospheric pollution. She has led several national research initiatives and is widely recognised for her work connecting scientific research, policy development, and public engagement.

Professor Karyn Morrissey
Professor Karyn MorrisseyCo-PI
Co-Principal InvestigatorUniversity of Galway

Professor Morrissey is an environmental economist whose research focuses on climate change, public health, adaptation, and resilience. Her work supports evidence-based policymaking through advanced econometric analysis and interdisciplinary research on environmental and societal impacts.

Dr. Mehdi Gholamnia
Dr. Mehdi Gholamnia
Postdoctoral ResearcherUniversity of Galway

Dr. Gholamnia specialises in geospatial analytics, remote sensing, spatial modelling, and environmental data integration. His research focuses on combining atmospheric observations, Earth Observation data, and emissions inventories to assess climate policy effectiveness and support pathways towards net-zero emissions.

Andy Donald
Andy Donald
Data Science & Applied InnovationInsight Research Ireland Centre for Data Analytics

Andy Donald leads the Applied Innovation Unit at Insight and brings expertise in artificial intelligence, machine learning automation, explainable AI, linked data, and large-scale data ecosystems. His work supports the development of INPACT’s integrated data infrastructure and digital tools.

Dr. Darius Ceburnis
Dr. Darius Ceburnis
Atmospheric ScienceUniversity of Galway

Dr. Ceburnis is an atmospheric scientist and internationally recognised expert in atmospheric composition measurements and long-term climate observations. Through his leadership of the Centre for Climate and Air Pollution Studies (C-CAPS), he has contributed significantly to Ireland’s greenhouse gas monitoring infrastructure and atmospheric research programmes.

Dr. Damien Martin
Dr. Damien Martin
Atmospheric Measurements & Emissions AnalysisUniversity of Galway

Dr. Martin manages the ICOS-Ireland network and has extensive experience in greenhouse gas monitoring, atmospheric observations, inverse modelling, and emissions verification. He supports the integration and interpretation of atmospheric datasets within the project.

David Nganga
David Nganga
PhD ResearcherUniversity of Galway

David Nganga researches the links between air quality, climate change, aerosols, and human health. He contributes expertise in atmospheric chemistry and public engagement, helping communicate climate and environmental research to diverse audiences.

Working Together for Climate Action

INPACT is founded on the principle that effective climate action requires collaboration across disciplines, sectors, and communities. By combining scientific evidence, economic analysis, advanced data systems, and meaningful public engagement, the project aims to provide the knowledge and tools needed to support Ireland’s transition to a sustainable, climate-resilient future.

Companion Analysis Tool

Structural Break Analysis

An interactive companion app that fits trend lines to Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions and pinpoints the years when those trends changed — helping you see, and quantify, the effect of climate policy over time.

What this tool does

Emissions rarely follow a single straight line. A gas or sector might fall steadily for years, then flatten — or start dropping faster after a new policy takes effect. The Structural Break Analysis app lets you split the timeline at those turning points (called structural break dates) and fit a separate trend line to each period, so you can compare the “before” and “after” of any change.

You choose a greenhouse gas (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, or the national total) and a sector, then mark the years where you think the trend shifted. The app fits the trends for you and reports the full statistics for each period — the slope (how fast emissions are rising or falling), the goodness of fit, and whether the change is statistically significant.

Climate policy markers — EU, national, and international — can be overlaid directly on the charts, making it easy to line up a turning point in the data with the policy that may have caused it. Everything is designed for presentation and publication: charts, statistics tables, and cleaned data can all be exported in high resolution.

The app opens in a new browser tab and runs on Streamlit Community Cloud. It is a self-contained tool — nothing you do there changes the data in this dashboard.

Streamlit

Structural Break Analysis app

Open the app

How to use it

  1. Click the Streamlit icon above — the app opens in a new browser tab.
  2. In the sidebar, keep the bundled Ireland inventory and pick a greenhouse gas and a sector.
  3. Type the structural break year(s) where you think the trend changed — or leave blank for a single trend line.
  4. Open the Regression and Statistics tabs to see the fitted trends and exact numbers.
  5. Use the Export tab to download publication-quality figures and tables.
Public Participation

Share Your Feedback

Your perspective helps contextualise the statistical evidence on policy effectiveness. Tell us how you view Ireland’s climate policies. Responses are anonymous and recorded for research purposes. All submissions are saved to the project’s feedback workbook.

Do you think national climate policies have reduced emissions?*
7
1 · Not effective10 · Highly effective
0 / 1000 characters
Aggregated Sentiment (this session)
0
Responses
Avg rating
Positive sentiment
Aggregated public sentiment is used alongside statistical models to contextualise perceived policy effectiveness. The counters above reflect submissions made in this browser session; the durable record lives in the project’s feedback workbook.
Download all feedback (Excel)

Retrieve the complete feedback workbook (.xlsx). The canonical copy is also committed to the project GitHub repository at data/feedback.xlsx.

Download .xlsx